Rethinking the way loans will be underwritten in a post-COVID environment
The effects of the coronavirus on the other three Cs (collateral, cash flow and credit) have been swift and, in many cases, painful. This pandemic has caused a “reset” in the minds of many international lenders/ and will inevitably usher in some rethinking of loosening underwriting standards we’ve seen over the/ last decade.
As with any massive paradigm shift, predicting the new normal is challenging and leads many market participants to pause. For many in the commercial-lending community, their current reality is managing a multifaceted business while maintaining liquidity, managing the credit risk of their existing book, and figuring out how to operate prudently going forward.
How could underwriting change?
At Canada ICI, we are observing a pullback in the marketplace as many groups work to adjust to the rapidly changing landscape. This hesitation has led to significant near-term changes in underwriting parameters. We believe these changes will persist until there is a clearer picture of when the crisis will end, the economy will reopen, and finally, what the fallout will be.
In the meantime, there are some downstream changes in underwriting that could happen:
Lower leverage ratios
It will be challenging to pin down asset valuations as it won’t be easy to ascertain future revenues, vacancies and cap rates. Until there is clarity on valuations, we expect to see lenders compensate by reducing their maximum loan to value ratios.
Bifurcation of values within asset classes
For the better part of the last 15 years, the risk premium between Class As and Class Bs has been relatively thin. At Canada ICI, we believe that the lending market becomes hypersensitive to understanding the resiliency of an asset’s tenant base. More resilient and defensive assets will be rewarded with pricing. Pay specific attention to collection ratios (contracted rents vs. actual collections) over the next 120 days and how they differ by asset classes and markets.
“Show me the liquidity” if you want a construction loan
Land and construction financing will be challenging in the near term resulting in more significant equity requirements with more focus on sponsor liquidity and track record. Exit underwriting needs to settle on revenue and expenses in a post-COVID world.
Naughty and nice lists
The Canadian lending market is a relatively small community. A borrower’s conduct on existing loans throughout the recent pandemic will be seared into the minds of lenders for years to come. The borrowers who have been proactive and transparent in communicating actual collections and working with their lenders will build significant goodwill and this will pay future dividends. Whether a borrower previously sought relief or sought a deferral during the pandemic, this will form part of many lenders’ credit adjudication process on future loans.
A focus on CMHC products