By Toby Burke
The 2024 U.S. election has ended with President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House and Republicans securing majorities in both legislative chambers on Capitol Hill. The national media may be focused on the consequences for the balance of power in Washington, D.C., but it’s important to look at the down-ballot races for state and local offices and ballot initiatives that impact the commercial real estate industry.
While Republicans obtained the trifecta of government at the federal level, the “status quo” was primarily maintained between the two political parties at the state legislative level, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Republicans did slightly better, but both political parties are claiming election-night victories and successes. Republicans increased their number of overall seats to 55.25% from 55% of the 7,386 state legislative seats.
Republican State Legislative Committee President Dee Duncan issued a memo outlining their successes through investing early and improving Republican turnout, particularly early and absentee voting, in maintaining control of a majority of the state legislatures. To mention a few battleground states, Republicans flipped control of the Michigan House and defended their majorities in both chambers of the Wisconsin legislature. In Nevada, Republicans gained enough seats to break Democrat supermajorities in both the Senate and Assembly that will now prevent the legislature from overriding Republican Governor Joe Lombardo’s vetoes.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) also issued their own press release of state success on election night. The Committee’s President Heather Williams stated, “the DLCC and our campaigns successfully prevented a Republican wave from taking shape in our state legislatures.” Democrats were able to defend a one-seat majority in the Pennsylvania House and break the supermajority in the North Carolina House. The North Carolina legislative will now be unable to override vetoes by incoming Democrat Governor Josh Stein.
The November election also included a number of state and local ballot initiatives that affect commercial real estate development. Maricopa County voters in Arizona approved Proposition 479, an extension of the transportation sales tax. The proposition will extend a half-cent sales tax until Dec. 31, 2045, in order to meet the transportation and transit needs of the county. NAIOP Arizona was instrumental in ensuring the passage of the proposition.
Neighboring voters in California rejected two down ballot propositions, Proposition 32 and Proposition 33, that would have negatively impacted commercial and residential development. While Proposition 32 raised the minimum wage to $18 dollars an hour, Proposition 33 would have repealed Costa Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, thus allowing cities and counties to adopt residential rent control ordinances. In addition to the owners and developers providing residential housing for rent, NAIOP and the industry were also concerned that, if enacted, policymakers and voters would then attempt to expand these controls to commercial leases.
Oregan Measure 118, the Corporate Tax Revenue Rebate for Residents Initiative, was also soundly defeated by voters in November. The enactment of Measure 118 would have increased the minimum tax by 3% on corporate sales exceeding $25 million. The Oregan Department of Revenue would then distribute the additional revenue generated from the tax to eligible residents, who reside at least 200 days in the state. There was bipartisan opposition to the measure.
The 2024 election has now concluded at each level of government in the U.S. Incumbents and newly elected lawmakers from both political parties will now travel to their respective offices and state capitols in the coming months to begin the lawmaking process and prepare for next year’s session. The lawmaking process will certainly include debates on taxes, the environment, housing, energy and other policies and regulations impacting the commercial development and real estate industry. NAIOP’s advocacy and participation in these policy debates ensures the voice of commercial real estate is taken into consideration.
