“Less than 2% of industrial space today is cold storage, and it probably needs to be at 15%. We’re not even in the first inning,” opened economist KC Conway in a keynote session at NAIOP’s I.CON Cold Storage. Using the analogy of peeling back an onion, Conway identified four cold storage and capital markets “layers” to “see what makes us sweat and what makes us cry.”
“We’ve been modeling for the U.S. to enter recession this quarter for the last year now,” began Dana M. Peterson, chief economic and center leader for economy, strategy and finance at The Conference Board, to a sold-out audience in a keynote at NAIOP’s I.CON East this week in Jersey City, New Jersey. She explained what a recession would look like, emerging economic trends, and their implications for industrial real estate.
Recent years brought new stresses on the construction industry – COVID-19 shutdowns, supply chain woes, labor shortages and bank failures have slowed projects or put them entirely on hold. At the same time, the cost of capital has risen considerably.
With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicating that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates through the end of the year and into 2023, traditional capital providers with strained balance sheets are pulling back on lending. And given the current economic outlook, many senior warehouse line lenders may also look to pull back on financing, opening the door for a more direct asset-by-asset approach. As a result, borrowers need to seek out alternative lenders that creatively finance their projects – enter nontraditional lenders and loan-on-loan financing partners.
With all signs pointing to an economic recession – presumably arriving midyear or Q3 – how can the commercial real estate community best plan for this event, which asset classes will be particularly hard hit, and what silver linings and opportunities will be available to savvy investors and progressive companies? Offering their insights and perspectives on this topic are Anirban Basu, chairman and CEO of Sage Policy Group and Jennifer LeFurgy, Ph.D., vice president of knowledge and research for NAIOP.
Marcus & Millichap President and CEO Hessam Nadji set the stage for an in-depth conversation on the market’s uncertainty and where the economy and commercial real estate are headed, featuring Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Analytics, and panelists Wendy Mann, CEO of CREW Network; Tom McGee, CEO of ICSC; and Marc Selvitelli, president and CEO of NAIOP.
Read the full list of what captured the attention of industry professionals this year on Market Share, the official blog for commercial real estate.
As the calendar turns to 2023, what’s ahead for the commercial real estate field? We talked to several NAIOP Distinguished Fellows and Research Foundation Governors to get their forecasts for the next 12 months.
At CRE.Converge 2022 this week, panelists Patti Miller, vice president at E.E. Reed Construction; Michael Anderson, senior project manager at
At CRE.Converge this week, attendees had the chance to hear from Marci Rossell, expert economic forecaster, former CNBC chief economist